Report warns of 'Kinmen model' - Taipei Times

• By Fang Wei-li / Staff reporter

China is replicating the "Kinmen model" of maritime "gray zone" tactics against Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) and Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島), a report published on Friday by the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation said.

Authored by Chen Yu-cheng (陳育正), an associate professor in the National Defense University's Graduate Institute of China Military Affairs Studies, the report describes the "Kinmen model" as a four-step "gray zone" strategy of creating a trigger event, carrying out law enforcement operations, launching a propaganda campaign and normalizing the presence.

Beijing uses an incident or diplomatic pretext to challenge Taiwan's maritime boundaries, then sends government vessels into waters under Taiwan's jurisdiction under the guise of "law enforcement," it said.

Photo courtesy of the Coast Guard Administration

The moves are amplified by Chinese officials and state media as rights-protection operations, with repeated incursions aimed at weakening boundaries, the report said.

From 2024 through the end of May, the China Coast Guard had conducted 117 patrol missions around Kinmen County, it added.

Dongsha has become a key pressure point because of its distance from Taiwan proper and its proximity to the area of operations of the Chinese People's Liberation Army's Southern Theater Command, making timely support more difficult during a crisis, the report said.

On June 11, two Chinese ships entered the restricted waters around Taiping Island for the first time before being driven away by Coast Guard Administration vessels, it said.

Beijing is seeking to change the "status quo" by normalizing its claims, while testing Taiwan's law enforcement capabilities, command structures, civil-military coordination and political resolve to defend its maritime boundaries — all without declaring a blockade, seizing territory or crossing the threshold into open conflict, it said.

Ocean Affairs Council Deputy Minister Sung Chen-en (宋承恩) yesterday said that China's pressure campaigns around Kinmen and Dongsha have escalated and are becoming increasingly "normalized," but the immediate threat remains manageable.

Beijing would face considerable difficulties in extending the "Kinmen model" to Dongsha and Taiping Island, given their vastly different geopolitical and strategic circumstances, Sung said.

There are no clear signs that China's activities have evolved into a routine pattern, he said, adding that Taiping differs significantly from Kinmen due to its distance from China.

Moreover, several countries in the South China Sea have competing sovereignty claims over Taiping, meaning any attempt by China to seize the island would affect multiple parties' interests and significantly change the regional "status quo," he said.

Regarding the warnings from international think tanks about escalating Chinese maritime "gray zone" threats, Sung said the international community is increasingly concerned about Beijing's use of the tactics, a view that aligns with Taiwan's own assessment.